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What Drives the Sovereign Bond Spreads in Central and Eastern Europe?
Růžička, Josef ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
This thesis is devoted to spreads of sovereign bonds in central and eastern Europe relative to German government bonds. In the first part, a widely used government bond spread model is presented. It turns out that its assumption may be relaxed. Next, we show how spreads, inflation and exchange rates interact. Subsequently, we investigate the relationship between spreads and other macroeconomic variables by econometric methods. The most important factors affecting bond spreads in the region are public debt, GDP growth, openness of the economy, current account balance, and inflation. Bond markets in CEE put more weight on total level of public debt than on budget deficits. The effects of these variables differed before and after the year 2008. Two subgroups of central and eastern European countries with similar spread determinants were identified: the first group is formed by Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia, while to the second one belong Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, and Romania. Uncertainty on global financial markets increases bond spreads in CEE as well as in western Europe. Bond spread determinants of the two groups differ from those of western European countries.
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Do fundamentals matter for government bond spreads in the EU? Evidence from non-linear models
Popaďák, Ján ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Čech, František (referee)
This thesis investigates dynamics of determinants of government bond spreads in EMU and non-EMU countries, using non-linear Markov-switching method and Dynamic model averaging. Utilizing Dynamic model averaging we found evidence of three bond pricing regimes - pre-crisis, crisis and post Outright monetary transaction announcements. These three regimes are characteristic for all EMU countries (except Slovak Republic) and Czech Republic. Announcements of OMTs triggered post OMTs announcement regime also in Slovak republic. Third regime is not present in Poland, Hungary and United Kingdom. Moreover United Kingdom has only one regime and is dominated solely by market expectations. We found that there is heterogeneity in the determinants of bond spreads across all examined countries. Moreover we found that spreads are significantly related to market and economic sentiments. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords Bond yields, bond spreads, DMA Author's e-mail jan.popadak@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail jaromir.baxa@fsv.cuni.cz
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What Drives the Sovereign Bond Spreads in Central and Eastern Europe?
Růžička, Josef ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
This thesis is devoted to spreads of sovereign bonds in central and eastern Europe relative to German government bonds. In the first part, a widely used government bond spread model is presented. It turns out that its assumption may be relaxed. Next, we show how spreads, inflation and exchange rates interact. Subsequently, we investigate the relationship between spreads and other macroeconomic variables by econometric methods. The most important factors affecting bond spreads in the region are public debt, GDP growth, openness of the economy, current account balance, and inflation. Bond markets in CEE put more weight on total level of public debt than on budget deficits. The effects of these variables differed before and after the year 2008. Two subgroups of central and eastern European countries with similar spread determinants were identified: the first group is formed by Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia, while to the second one belong Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, and Romania. Uncertainty on global financial markets increases bond spreads in CEE as well as in western Europe. Bond spread determinants of the two groups differ from those of western European countries.
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